Nuggets vs. Blazers odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 4

February 4, 2020 Carlo Antonio Chan

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (34-16) will host Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers (23-27) on Tuesday. The Nuggets are finally starting to get healthier after playing without three starters for the majority of 2020. Gary Harris is back with the team, while Jamal Murray (ankle) has been upgraded to questionable after missing Denver’s past 10 games. Paul Millsap (knee), Michael Porter Jr. (ankle) and Mason Plumlee (foot) are all still out. Portland doesn’t have any new injuries to report.

Tip-off for this one is set for 9 p.m ET from the Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as 4.5-point road favorites, while the over-under for total points is 226 in the latest Nuggets vs. Blazers odds. Before making any Blazers vs. Nuggets picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 16 on a blistering 34-18 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Blazers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Blazers vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Blazers spread: Nuggets -4.5
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers over-under: 226 points
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers money line: Denver -182, Portland +157
  • POR: The Blazers have the NBA’s third-worst ATS record (20-29-1) on the year, even after covering the spread in each of the past four games.
  • DEN: After posting a top-five ATS cover rate (59.2 percent) at home last season, Denver has covered just 47.8 percent of home spreads this season.

Why the Nuggets can cover

The Nuggets have already covered the spread in both games against Portland this season, and they beat the Blazers by 15 the last time the teams faced off in the Mile High City. And while Denver hasn’t covered the spread at the same rate it did when playing at the Pepsi Center last season, its defense still has been much improved at home.

Opponents are scoring just 103.7 points per game at the Pepsi Center, as opposed to the 109.3 points per game the Nuggets allow when playing on the road. The defense is one of the key differences between these two teams — the Nuggets rank top-10 in defensive efficiency, while Portland is 25th. If any defense is going to be able to slow the red-hot Lillard, it’s Denver’s.

Why the Blazers can cover

Even so, Denver isn’t a lock to cover the Nuggets vs. Blazers spread. The model is well aware that Portland has been a difficult team to beat with Lillard playing at such a high level as of late. Not only have the Blazers won four straight, but those wins all came against playoff teams. They beat the Lakers in L.A. and have double-digit victories over the Jazz, Rockets and Pacers during that time.

Lillard has accessed a level we haven’t seen before in 2020, averaging 49 points, seven rebounds, and 10 assists over his past six games. He has shot 57 percent from three during that time and is averaging 8.2 made 3-pointers per game. His lowest scoring output was 36 points in a triple-double against Houston. He scored at least 47 points in every other game.

How to make Nuggets vs. Blazers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Lillard, CJ McCollum and Murray all to finish below their season scoring average. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

source : cbssports