Bucks vs. Pelicans odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 4

February 4, 2020 Carlo Antonio Chan

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks (42-7) square off against Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans (20-30) in an intriguing NBA battle on Tuesday evening. The Bucks enter as the NBA’s best team, while the Pelicans are playing improved basketball in recent days. George Hill (hamstring) will miss the game for the Bucks, while Kenrich Williams (back) and Darius Miller (Achilles) will be absent for New Orleans.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Smoothie King Center. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 6.5-point road favorites, up half a point from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 244.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Pelicans odds. Before making any Pelicans vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s projection model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 16 on a blistering 34-18 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Pelicans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Pelicans vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Pelicans spread: Bucks -6.5
  • Bucks vs. Pelicans over-under: 244.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Pelicans money line: Bucks -254, Pelicans +207
  • MIL: The Bucks are 27-22 against the spread this season
  • NO: The Pelicans are 15-4-1 against the spread in the last 20 games

Why the Bucks can cover

The model knows that the Bucks have the best record in the NBA, and Milwaukee has won 10 of the last 11 games. Mike Budenholzer’s team is elite on both ends, with a league-leading shooting efficiency on offense. Against a Pelicans defense that ranks within the bottom 10 of the NBA, that is a favorable matchup for the visitors.

Milwaukee also does a good job at avoiding turnovers, with the Pelicans struggling to force them. On the defensive side, Milwaukee will face a real challenge against the explosive Pelicans, but the Bucks are the best defensive team in the NBA, leading the league in several categories.

Why the Pelicans can cover

Despite Milwaukee’s dominance, it isn’t a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Pelicans spread. The model understands that the Pelicans have a shaky overall record but, in the last 22 games, New Orleans is 14-8. Much of that uptick is keyed by a tremendous offense, with the Pelicans leading the NBA in points per game over that time span. New Orleans does have a turnover issue, but the Bucks play conservatively and that should give the Pelicans room to breathe.

Brandon Ingram should be a critical piece for the Pelicans, averaging 24.9 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and he is flanked by Jrue Holiday and Williamson. On a per-minute basis, Williamson has been elite already to begin his NBA career, with 19.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in limited deployment.

How to make Bucks vs. Pelicans picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Ingram both projected to fall short of their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value.

source : cbssports