Mavericks vs. Clippers odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 21 predictions from model on 32-16 roll

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (27-15) will host Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers (30-13) in the only game on the Tuesday NBA schedule. Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is hoping suit up Tuesday’s game after missing the last 10 contests. The Clippers will again be without Paul George (hamstring) but are expected to have Maurice Harkless (back) back in the lineup.

Tip-off for this one is set for 8:30 p.m ET from American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 232.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Clippers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks:

Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Mavericks -1.5
Mavericks vs. Clippers over-under: 232.5 points
Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Dallas -125, Los Angeles +105
LAC: Los Angeles has covered just 33 percent of spreads faced as a road underdog this season.
DAL: The Mavs have the NBA’s sixth-worst home ATS cover rate (40.6 percent).

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model is well aware that the Clippers haven’t looked like the same team without George, covering the spread in just two of five games since he went down with a hamstring injury. George’s absence will be particularly important if Porzingis suits up for the Mavs. The last time these teams faced, George was healthy and able to defend Doncic, which allowed Doc Rivers to use Leonard on Porzingis. With George out, one of Dallas’ superstars is going to be left with a favorable matchup.

While Dallas surely would have liked to have a healthy Porzingis all this time, his absence has allowed for other members of the team to find their groove. Tim Hardaway Jr. has taken on a larger role as the team’s second scoring option, putting up 29 points in Dallas’ last game and averaging 19 points over his past five. Dwight Powell has turned his season around after a slow start, averaging 14 points and eight rebounds over the past five games, and Maxi Kleber has showcased his elite shot-blocking ability while playing more minutes in Porzingis’ stead. Porzingis will return to a more complete team than the one that lost to L.A. in November.

Why the Clippers can cover

But that doesn’t guarantee Dallas will cover the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread. The model is also aware that the Clippers already have handed the Mavs a 15-point loss in Dallas this season — a game that Porzingis was fully healthy for. Los Angeles’ elite defense held Dallas’ star combo of Porzingis and Doncic to a combined 8-27 shooting in that one. Doncic has been struggling with his shot a bit over the past week, and if he can’t get going against L.A.’s tough perimeter defense, it is going to be difficult for Dallas to cover this spread.

As if that weren’t enough, the Mavs have been one of the NBA’s worst home teams this season. They’re 14-5 with a +8.1 point differential on the road, as opposed to just 13-10 with a +6.7 point differential at the American Airlines Arena. The Mavs have covered just 40.6 percent of spreads when playing at home, which includes their previous loss to the Clippers.

How to make Mavericks vs. Clippers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.