Rockets vs. Mavericks odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 1

James Harden, Russell Westbrook and the Houston Rockets (29-18) will host Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas Mavericks (29-18) on Friday evening. While the game loses a bit of luster in the absence of Luka Doncic (ankle), this is still a matchup between two postseason-bound teams fighting for positioning in the 2020 NBA playoff picture. Tim Hardaway Jr. (back) is questionable to play for Dallas, while the Rockets enter the game with no major injury concerns.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center. Sportsbooks list the Rockets as 9.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 235.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Rockets odds. Before making any Rockets vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 15 on a blistering 33-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Mavericks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets:

Mavericks vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -9.5
Mavericks vs. Rockets over-under: 235.5 points
Mavericks vs. Rockets money line: Rockets -487, Mavericks +376
DAL: The Mavericks are 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine games
HOU: The Rockets are 3-2 against the spread in the last five games

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model knows that the Mavericks aren’t the same team without Doncic, but Dallas is still an impressive offensive team when he leaves the floor. On the whole, the Mavs are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating, with top-five marks in shooting efficiency and offensive rebounding.

From there, Dallas is also elite in protecting the ball offensively, limiting turnovers, and the Mavericks are also one of the better teams in the league at keeping their opponents away from the charity stripe. Porzingis would also be in line for a larger role in the absence of Doncic, with the talented big man averaging 16.8 points and 8.9 rebounds per game this season. Rick Carlisle’s bunch operates in intricate, effective fashion, and they shouldn’t be overlooked.

Why the Rockets can cover

Even so, Dallas isn’t a lock to cover the Rockets vs. Mavericks spread. The model also has considered that Houston is the healthier team and, with that said, the Rockets have the clear talent advantage. Mike D’Antoni’s team has an elite offense overall, including a top-five mark in points per possession.

A big part of that is free-throw generation and, while the Mavericks are pretty good at avoiding fouls, Harden ranks at the top of the league in generating 12.2 free-throw attempts per game. That staggering figure can swing the balance of any game and, for good measure, the Rockets should be able to create second-chance opportunities against a Mavericks defense that is below average in protecting the glass.

How to make Mavericks vs. Rockets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Doncic’s absence seen as critical in that case. Harden is also projected to land below his season-long scoring average. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations.